Air cargo tonnages from Hong Kong and China to Europe have bounced back strongly from the effects of ‘super-typhoon Ragasa’ in late September, although pricing from Asia Pacific markets remains well down on last year’s levels, according to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data.
Chargeable weight from Hong Kong to Europe flooded back with a +29% week-on-week (WoW) rebound in week 40 (29 September to 5 October) after dropping -19% the previous week due to flight cancellations caused by the world’s biggest storm this year – which particularly affected flights from Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Southeast China. China to Europe tonnages also regained +6% in week 40 following declines of -2% and -3%, WoW, in the previous two weeks, although the patterns are complicated by the effects of China’s ‘Golden Week’ holiday in the first week of October (1 to 8 October). The usual rush of air cargo volumes in the lead up to this Mid-Autumn Festival was disrupted this year by super-typhoon Ragasa. And whereas last year overall volumes from Asia Pacific in week 40 dropped by -7%, WoW, because of the effects of last year’s ‘Golden Week’ holiday in China, this year they rose by +1% WoW – boosted by the post-typhoon recovery.
There was also a second week of strong increases in volumes from Japan to Europe (+13%), and tonnages from South Korea to Europe rose in week 40 (+6%, WoW) for the fifth consecutive week. The patterns from China and Hong Kong to the USA were less clear, as has been the case for several months, with tonnages from China to the USA falling a further -2% in week 40. But volumes from Hong Kong partially rebounded with a +7% WoW increase after losing -15% the previous week, in what has remained a relatively volatile market.
Tonnage gains and pricing declines compared to last year
Despite last week’s rebound, tonnages from Hong Kong to the USA remain well down (-16%) on the equivalent period in 2024, continuing to show the effects of the removal by the USA of ‘de minimis’ exemptions on low-value imports – which has particularly impacted Hong Kong’s previously buoyant e-commerce export market to the USA. And tonnages from Japan (-14%, YoY) and South Korea (-32%, YoY) to the USA are also well below last year’s levels. But tonnages from Asia Pacific markets as a whole to the USA remained higher, year on year (+7%, YoY), in week 40 thanks to huge YoY increases in volumes from Taiwan (+62%), Vietnam (+50%), Thailand (+63%), and Malaysia (+34%). However, average spot rates from Asia Pacific to the USA of US$4.77 per kilo in week 40 are down -18% on their equivalent level last year.
From Asia Pacific to Europe, average spot rates of $3.87 per kilo in week 40 were down -11%, YoY, despite higher YoY tonnages (+8%, YoY). China (+1%, YoY) and Taiwan (+7%, YoY) were the only two major origin markets to record YoY spot rate increases, with significant YoY drops from Hong Kong (-12%), Japan (-5%), South Korea (-9%), and even bigger YoY declines from Vietnam (-24%), Thailand (-14%), Malaysia (-30%), Singapore (-17%) and Indonesia (-18%).
Meanwhile, tonnages from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins dropped notably in week 40 (-8%, WoW), due chiefly to declines from India (-13% to Europe, WoW; -17% to USA, WoW), affected by various holidays including a national public holiday in India on 2 October.
Average worldwide rates, based on a full-market average of spot and contact rates, rose +3%, WoW, in week 40 to $2.51 per kilo, due chiefly to a +5% WoW increase from Asia Pacific origins, related to the effects of China’s Golden Week holiday. Worldwide chargeable weight, meanwhile, dipped by -2%, WoW, due to decreases from MESA (-8%), Europe (-5%) and North America (-3%) origins – in part also caused by China’s Golden Week holiday.
Total worldwide tonnages in week 40 were +3% higher, YoY, driven by a +9% YoY increase from Asia Pacific origins, and average full-market rates were down -4% on their equivalent levels this time last year, as per the analysis.