Worldwide air cargo tonnages were up +4% in the third quarter (Q3) of this year compared with 2024, although average global prices have dipped (-3%) below their equivalent levels in Q3 last year, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.
Chargeable weight in the three months to the end of September continued this year’s pattern of consistent and steady year-on-year (YoY) quarterly growth, following on from the +4% in the second quarter and +3% in Q1. Cumulatively, air cargo tonnages for the year to date (YtD) stand at +4%, YoY, with overall air cargo prices for 2025, so far, broadly on a par with their levels in the first nine months of 2024.
The patterns in the third quarter on a regional basis broadly mirror their performance for the year as a whole so far. For example, all origin regions recorded YoY growth in Q3, with Asia Pacific leading on +7%, followed by increases of +3% from Europe, North America, and Central & South America (CSA) origins. Intra-Asia Pacific flows, already the largest regional market worldwide, showed the strongest growth, increasing by +10% in Q3, YoY, based on the more than 2 million monthly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
Quarter-on-quarter tonnage growth
Compared with the previous quarter, flown chargeable weight in Q3 rose by a further +3%, with increases of +4% from Asia Pacific origins and +9% from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins, and growth from North America and Europe of +3% and +2%, respectively, quarter on quarter (QoQ).
On the pricing side, average worldwide rates were similar in the third quarter to their level in Q2. But compared with Q3 last year, average global prices are -3% lower this year in Q3. That drop is chiefly a function of air cargo rates ramping up steadily as the year progressed last year, especially from Asia Pacific and MESA origins, whereas this year average rates have been pretty steady throughout the year from all of the main world origin regions.
Preliminary full-month figures for September suggest that the last month has also broadly been in line with the general patterns for 2025, despite some considerable volatility at various times from certain markets – including because of new and changing US import tariffs.
Average worldwide rates of US$2.43 per kilo in September were very similar to their levels in August, July and June, based on a full-market average of spot and contract rates. But compared with September last year, average worldwide prices this year were -6% lower, as rates this year have not yet begun the end-of-year increases that were already visible in September last year, especially from Asia Pacific origins.
Asia Pacific turbulence
Looking specifically at week 39, total worldwide tonnages flown in the last full week of September dropped by -2% compared with the previous week, mostly due to declines in volumes from Asia Pacific origins, linked to flight cancellations and other disruptions caused by ‘super-typhoon Ragasa’.
The world’s most severe storm this year led to significant disruptions and flight cancellations in the first half of week 39 in Taiwan, Hong Kong and south-eastern China. Hong Kong and Shenzhen were particularly badly affected, but there were also substantial numbers of flight cancellations from Guangzhou and Shanghai. These are reflected in air cargo tonnage figures for week 39, with volumes from Hong Kong to the USA down -17%, week on week (WoW), and there were declines of -7% from Taiwan and -4% from China to the USA. There was a similar picture to Europe, with tonnages from Hong Kong down -19%, WoW, and with chargeable weight from China down by -7%, WoW.
These declines in cargo capacity and tonnages occurred during a period that normally experiences higher-than-usual demand in the lead up to China’s ‘Golden Week’ holiday in the first week of October. Golden Week 2025 was already expected to present an unusual supply chain challenge because of the convergence this year of China’s traditional National Day holiday with the Mid-Autumn Festival, creating an extended 8-day shutdown (1-8 October). But the impact of super-typhoon Ragasa in late September on both air and ocean freight supply chains is expected to cause additional complexity and an extended recovery period for cargo stakeholders, as per the analysis.